Ahead of Jerome Powell's latest meeting at the helm of the Federal Reserve, another significant fact cannot be overlooked. This month, the U.S. Department of Justice closed the case against the Fed president, finding no evidence of wrongdoing in the case regarding budget overruns for the reconstruction of Fed buildings. The Department of Justice spent many months searching for any evidence of Powell's guilt, but ultimately was unsuccessful. It is worth noting that Powell's case was examined not by a court but specifically by the Department of Justice.

Thus, I can state that Powell has achieved a crushing victory over Trump. The U.S. president tried by all means to remove Powell from his position, using methods that no one else would ever consider. From the very beginning, it was clear that the accusations against Powell or Lisa Cook were worth no more than a hill of beans. With the same success, Trump could have accused Fed officials of violating traffic laws and demanded their resignations on that basis.

Last year, I stated that Powell is not a foreman, and all expenditures for the reconstruction of Fed buildings were approved by the U.S. Congress. Therefore, if anyone should be blamed, it should only be the congressmen. However, congressmen are unlikely to admit their guilt, and there is likely no guilt to admit. The budget for repairs has increased, but this is a normal occurrence, as anyone who has ever dealt with repairs knows.

Additionally, the Department of Justice found no evidence of Powell providing false testimony in Congress. In simple terms, Powell did not mislead Congress when discussing the budget increase for the reconstruction. And why would Powell need to do that? If there was indeed "money laundering," the focus should have been on finding the actual funds in Powell's accounts. It is likely that no one found anything because there was no "laundering." Moreover, let me remind you that this is not about Jerome's country villa, but a public institution. Powell requested more funds for the repair of a government building, not personal property. Thus, the question arises again: why would Powell theoretically need to "fraudulently" inflate the budget?

In my view, on Wednesday, Powell will appear as a departing victor. He did not cave to Trump's pressures, demonstrated to all of America that the Fed is independent from political pressure, and set an example for other Fed governors who will remain in their positions after his departure. On Wednesday, the markets will be watching his victory speech.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and could take on a more complex, extended form only if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin to form. We have seen the corrective wave; from here, everything will depend on market confidence in a successful outcome of negotiations.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has, over time, become clearer, as I anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure in the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one downward wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend could take a five-wave form, but this requires the conflict in the Middle East to subside rather than reignite. Therefore, the baseline scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34 figure or slightly lower. Again, everything will depend on geopolitical factors.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement, nor can there ever be. Do not forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.