Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1487 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had risen sharply from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

Rumors of renewed dialogue between the United States and Iran on a peaceful resolution to the military confrontation led to a decline in demand for the American currency. This information, rapidly disseminated among market participants, sparked a wave of positive sentiment. The expectation of a diplomatic compromise helps to ease geopolitical tensions, which are known to fuel interest in riskier assets.

Today, the focus will be on Italy's consumer price index data, which plays a crucial role in assessing inflation trends in the Eurozone's largest economy. Alongside the Italian data, the results of the ZEW survey, reflecting the business sentiment index for both the Eurozone and Germany, will be published. Given the war in the Middle East and the risk of a new energy crisis in the EU, we should not expect favorable figures from these indices.

In addition, today will feature a statement from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. The remarks from the head of the German central bank, an influential figure in the European Central Bank, traditionally attract heightened attention. Nagel is expected to address current economic conditions in Germany and the Eurozone, and to spotlight the prospects for ECB monetary policy in light of the US-Iran war.

For the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1502 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1526. At the point of 1.1526, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise today within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1485 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1502 and 1.1526.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches level 1.1485 (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1458, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1502 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1485 and 1.1458.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.